Foreword
The monthly update from Trajectory: April 2026
A month is a long time in geopolitics
As regular readers (God bless you) may recall, last month’s Foreword had the sorry duty of informing you that optimism among Britons was at its lowest point in two years.
One month later, in early March, optimism was up a smidge and John Bull had recovered some of his equanimity. Overall though, optimism was still in negative territory.
At the time the fieldwork was conducted, Operation Epic Fury* had just started and most of us assumed that the military misadventure in The Gulf would be brief, with little impact beyond the region.
Funny how things turn out.
In early March, we recorded a big increase in the trust that people have in politicians. Some of this can be attributed to the rally-round-the-flag effect that often occurs in times of crisis (we recorded a similar boost in trust at the beginning of the Covid pandemic). I’d also wager that the idiosyncratic behaviour of the 47th President of the United States has made Britons see our beleaguered but stoic Prime Minister in a more favourable light.
Confidence in household finances and the performance of the UK economy also ratcheted up in March, feeding directly through to an expectation of higher spending on the fun stuff. Good times!
April 2026: the month that the balloon went up.
Photo: Unsplash / David Lowe
Less positive was the declining optimism of middle-Britain; spirits have sagged in Acacia Avenue. Our March data shows that households earning between £40k and £60k are now barely more optimistic than those on the lowest salaries. Confidence among people on middling incomes is at its lowest point since the cost of living crisis in 2022.
Our April fieldwork is nearly complete. I’ll stick my neck out here and now and say that optimism may be down a tad this month.
The rich and engrossing detail of our monthly quantitative research with 1,500 representative Britons is available to our perspicacious band of subscribers. If you’d like to join their ranks, please see the details at the bottom of this communique.
*Just as a reminder, Operation Epic Fury has emboldened Iran, enriched Russia, embittered China, enraged Pope Leo XIV, emasculated NATO and left the USA empty-handed.
Optimism x 100
The Optimism Index has been tracking, in detail, the mood of the British public since Theresa May was our Prime Minister.
This month’s wave of research is our 100th.
To mark the occasion, our next webinar will look back at what 100 waves of research and 150,000 responses have taught us about British consumers and their optimism, confidence, concerns and priorities. We’ll analyse their changing attitudes and behaviour. We’ll examine how and why they shop. We’ll consider how they use financial services and how they give to charity. We’ll look at their changing attitudes towards sustainability. We’ll also look at what the startling events of 2026 mean for the rest of this year.
There’s a value in looking back at history, not least in better understanding how we got to here.
The webinar takes place on April 30th. It is free and you are all welcome. To learn more - and to register - simply press the (non-nuclear) button below.
Relight my (Kindle) fire
Every month, I look at real-world manifestations of our Macrotrends
I own an Amazon Kindle. I like it, not least because it is an unassuming and mild-mannered bit of technology. It confers a number of non-trivial benefits; it’s easy to carry, it’s light, it’s easy to use and - once charged - the battery will comfortably outlive the tenure of any manager of Tottenham Hotspur Football Club. In addition, a Kindle book is usually cheaper than a paper book. The Kindle also means that my house doesn’t fill up with printed books that I will, at some point, need to pack into sturdy bags and deadlift to the nearest charity shop. Finally, electronic books strike me as a more sustainable way of reading; no trees have to be cut down to make an e-book.
I’ve had my faultless Kindle for twelve years.
On April 8th, Amazon e-mailed me to say that they will be discontinuing support for Kindle devices released in 2012 or earlier. What this means is that I; “…will not be able to purchase, borrow or download additional books on [it] after [May 20th 2026].” To sweeten the pill, I’ve been given a voucher for 20% off a new Kindle - the cheapest of which is £74.99. If a want a Kindle without advertisements, I’ll need to spend £104.99. Needless to say, my current Kindle does not carry advertisements.
This is vexing in a number of ways but the thing that grinds my gears the most is having to discard a fully-functioning piece of consumer technology. This episode has reminded me of a conversation I had ten years ago with a very well-known manufacturer of consumer electronics. The leadership of the company had become concerned about a looming reputational issue; namely the amount of e-waste that has been created through manufacturers constantly encouraging consumers to upgrade their devices.
They have a point.
In 2022, a record 62 billion kilos of e-waste was generated globally - enough to fill 1,550,000 trucks. In 2022, on a per capita basis, the average European was responsible for 18 kg of electronic waste of which only 7.5 kg was recycled.
This episode illustrates a couple of the Macrotrends that we continue to monitor. Consumption Guilt refers to the unease consumers have in the environmental cost of their purchases. In the case of the elderly but spry Kindles, consumption guilt has been foisted upon consumers who are now being obliged to purchase another device. Given that Amazon will spend $200 billion this year on AI, it seems surprising that they lack the means to keep some serviceable old book readers going.
Our Age of Inconvenience Macrotrend is also illustrated by the Kindle story. One of the points we make in our description of the trend is that; “The availability of products and services whenever we want them, wherever we want them is an inevitable response to busier lives. But increasingly, such convenience will come at a cost.” £104.99 less 20% discount in my case.
Subscribe to Trajectory
The world has become a more volatile place (just ask Pam Bondi). For that reason, it’s vital to have an up-to-date understanding of what matters to consumers. Our monthly programme of quantitative research informs our subscription service and gives you a contemporaneous and reliable analysis of the consumer mood.
An annual subscription starts at around the same price as seven Amazon Kindles (16GB, newest generation with advertisements). You know what I’m saying. I won’t labour the point.
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All of Now & Next plus offline humanity! We’re including analyst support in this package. There is also the ability to add your own questions to our monthly fieldwork with 1,500 nationally representative Britons. £7,500 per year per organisation (unlimited users).